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Market specialists have voiced deep skepticism regarding recent claims that US large firms will swiftly pump billions of dollars to fix the country's crumbling energy sector.

Demand for Iron-Clad Guarantees

Lacking an absolute assurance of financial backing from the Washington, specialists predict multinational oil companies to move with great care.

“It would be premature to comment on any upcoming plans,” a spokesperson commented recently.

The optimistic schedule of under a year and a half has been boldly proposed. Yet, industry projections indicate a more cautious outlook.

A More Realistic Timeline

“Chances are going to take 36 months for any significant recovery in production,” said an energy analyst.

The analysis indicates oil companies would likely spend:

• The first year: Securing new government and security contracts.
• The second year: Investing in overhaul of equipment.
• The third year: Being able to boost production.

This would lead to an rise of around half a million barrels per day possibly by late 2028.

Desire Versus Appetite for Spending

Experts make a critical difference between multinationals’ interest and their appetite to invest significantly.

“In my view their interest is an eight, on a scale of ten. However, their readiness is a much lower, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Seasoned observers in the region echo this view. The thinking is that companies will politically express enthusiasm while privately proceeding with deliberate slowness.

The Vast Cost

The required bill would be colossal. Research analysis suggest that adding between half a million and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in investment over two to three years.

Yet, rebuilding output to historical levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Issue of Federal Guarantees

The suggestion of firms being paid back by the federal government has been often raised. But, concrete details on any guarantee have so far not been announced.

Without clarity is the key factor for the sector's hesitation. Operators seek protection against nationalization and the possibility that a subsequent administration could refuse any deal.

“You need to be shielded from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela before.”

In summary, while political promises runs high, the financial challenges suggest a journey of measured steps for any large-scale investment in the country's energy industry.